Time?probabilistic approach to the late Miocene Messinian salinity crisis: Implications for a disconnected Paratethys

The late Miocene Messinian salinity crisis was an evaporitic episode that occurred throughout the Mediterranean; it concluded with a transition from hypersaline to fresher-water “lake sea” (Lago Mare) conditions prior Pliocene. Whereas numerous researchers propose Lago Mare sediments accumulated in Mediterranean-wide lake filled Paratethyan waters, other workers reject this hypothesis. Here, test Paratethyan-overflow model, we develop novel time-probabilistic approach evaluate distribution of precession-related deposits. We apply our methodology 24 circum-Mediterranean sites, focusing on two previously untested parameters: probability preserving intrabasin precession cycles; and similarities interbasin preservation. Our results, which show increase preservation similarity successively younger cycles, display trend opposite what is expected flooded Mediterranean. Consequently, conclude accumulations were deposited disconnected, shallow lacustrine environments, thereby casting doubt widely accepted Paratethyan-supply